Along with the announcement on Monday, January 6 by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that he will resign as soon as a new Liberal Leader is selected, shifting opinions on federal politics are showing in Eastern Ontario and southwestern Québec.
Aggregations of recent opinion polls indicate ridings currently represented by Liberal Members of Parliament (MP) could be lost to other parties whenever the next federal election occurs.
According to 338Canada.com, a website which aggregates and averages all political opinion polls in Canada, the new riding of Prescott-Russell-Cumberland is likely to swing Conservative, based on current polling. The current riding of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell is represented by Liberal MP Francis Drouin, who is not seeking re-election after nine years in federal politics.
The new riding includes all of the United Counties of Prescott and Russell (UCPR) and the former Township of Cumberland within the current City of Ottawa. Cumberland was part of the UCPR until 1970 when it was transferred to the former Regional Municipality of Ottawa-Carleton.
In Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, 338Canada.com projects the riding could likely be won by the Bloc Québecois. Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation is currently represented by Liberal MP Stéphane Lauzon who has held the seat since 2015.
Lauzon is the Chair of the Québec Liberal caucus. The group of Liberal MPs has requested Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resign and a new leader be selected for the Liberal party.
The new riding of Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry (SDG) is likely to remain under Conservative representation, based on current Canada338 projections. The current riding of Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry is represented by Conservative MP Eric Duncan. The new riding will include all of the territory of SDG.
The Vaudreuil riding, which includes Pointe-Fortune, Rigaud, and Hudson, is currently represented by Liberal MP Peter Schiefke. Canada 338’s current projection is that the riding could remain Liberal, or shift to the Bloc Québecois whenever an election is held.
Nationally, Canada338.com’s average of aggregated opinion polls showed that as of January 5, 2025, the Conservative party, led by Pierre Polievre, had the support of 45 per cent of voters surveyed, and the Liberal party had the support of 20 per cent of voters. New Democratic Party support was at 19 per cent, the Bloc Québecois at eight per cent, and four per cent for the Green Party.
